OPINION: The bonus-point victory in Cape Town has provided the Bulls with some breathing room, yet Jake White faces some difficult decisions at a key stage of the season.
The north-south derby at the Cape Town Stadium this past Saturday was compelling for several reasons.
The Bulls raced to an early lead before the Stormers clawed their way back into the contest.
Both sets of kickers missed some relatively easy attempts, and Clayton Blommetjies’ gaffe at the death meant the difference between five and two log points.
How much will that kick – as well as Jurie Matthee’s misses earlier in the game – cost the Stormers at the end of the United Rugby Championship league phase?
If Blommetjies had nailed the final kick and steered the Stormers to a bonus-point victory, the Cape side would have finished the round in seventh place on the log.
As a result, John Dobson’s charges would have taken some confidence into the next set of fixtures against the Lions and Bulls (both on the highveld).
But as it stands, the Stormers find themselves in a desperate situation.
They’ve lost a host of senior stars to serious injuries in recent months. They’ve suffered three consecutive defeats across all tournaments, and currently sit in 10th place on the URC log.
The upshot is that Dobson cannot afford to rest or rotate. They have to reverse the trend in the coming derbies if they are going to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Of course, by the time those knockout matches arrive, a tired and battered Stormers side may be in no condition to compete for the title.
Thanks to Blommetjies’ missed conversion, the Bulls find themselves in a contrasting position.
While they have suffered significant personnel losses in recent weeks – Cobus Wiese joined the casualty ward after sustaining an ankle injury this past Saturday – they are currently third in the URC standings, with nine matches to play.
The Bulls are equally well placed in the context of this “South African mini-series”, staged over February and March.
After banking five log points in Cape Town – and ending their losing streak at the Green Point fortress – they can look forward to three successive matches at Loftus Versfeld.
Jake White could back a similar combination to front the Sharks this Saturday, or he could rotate his squad with this four-game block in mind (the Bulls are one of two teams who will play four games in succession during this period) and peak in the playoffs.
White may call on his players to make the most of these derbies and to bank as many log points as possible against the Sharks, Lions, and Stormers.
The more points the Bulls accumulate, the greater their chances of finishing in the top four – or even in the top two, and possibly hosting another final at Loftus.
But as the Springboks have shown in recent seasons, it’s possible to tick the boxes of results and player management simultaneously.
The Bulls would do well to employ a more balanced selection policy in the coming weeks if they want to accumulate log points while setting themselves up for a serious surge in the playoffs.
The Lions, Sharks, and Stormers will need all hands on deck in the coming weeks, as they look to boost their respective positions in the URC. For the Bulls, there will be further opportunities beyond the South African derbies.
The Bulls will host Leinster on March 22. The URC log leaders will be without their stars for the clash, given that the game falls on the final weekend of the Six Nations.
The following week, they will host Zebre and will expect to bank five log points against the struggling Italian outfit.
Beyond that, there is another management juggle to consider.
The Bulls will head to France to play Bayonne in the Challenge Cup Round of 16 match, before another potential playoff in Europe.
Immediately after the Challenge Cup matches, the Bulls will travel to Munster and Glasgow – who will be back to full strength in the wake of the Six Nations.
If the Bulls progress to the Challenge Cup semifinals, they will in all likelihood remain in Europe for a fifth consecutive week, before heading back to Pretoria for their final two URC league matches against Cardiff and the Dragons.
They could head overseas after the Dragons clash for the Challenge Cup Final (if they qualify), before returning to Loftus for a possible URC quarterfinal.
To summarise – if they qualify for the Challenge Cup Final as well as the URC Final, they will face 13 consecutive matches between March 22 and June 14.
It’s an extraordinary schedule, and that’s before you consider how often they’ll be bouncing between South Africa and Europe.
White’s management of the squad will be under scrutiny, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see a less experienced side featuring in the Challenge Cup fixtures (unless they progress to the semi-final and final) while a stronger combination targets points and the best possible log position in the URC.
With all this in mind, one could understand why the Bulls might field their best team over the next three matches in a bid to bank as many log points as possible.
It would leave them with less to do at the back end of the season, which promises to be highly demanding, whether they send their best side to Europe or not.
On the other hand, if they push their best players throughout these four derbies, they run the risk of burnout and possibly more injuries ahead of the business end of the season.
The Bulls have to get the balance right at this juncture if they are going to enter the playoffs with a realistic shot of winning a title.
