Does F1’s 2026 silly season have silliness in store?

Lewis Hamilton’s move from Mercedes to Ferrari wouldn’t be described as “shocking” or “historic” if such transfers happened every year, and F1 is unlikely to see anything like it anytime soon. Not only has the most successful driver in history joined the most iconic team in the championship, but the official announcement also kicked off one of the most extensive games of musical chairs in the driver market.

Things won’t be quite the same in 2025, with many of the key players – including Hamilton – having secured places where they expect to remain for the next couple of seasons, covering both the upcoming campaign, which starts in Melbourne in a month’s time, and the first year under the revised regulations in 2026.

All indications are that it’s going to be a waiting game this time around. But there’s still plenty of intrigue surrounding 2027.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Waiting for Verstappen’s next move

For a few weeks last year, it seemed as if F1 was about to experience another earthquake almost immediately after the one caused by Ferrari and Hamilton. With Toto Wolff’s glowing praise of Max Verstappen and Red Bull’s internal civil war triggered by allegations against boss Christian Horner, many in the paddock believed it was highly likely that the Dutchman would move to Mercedes as early as 2025, and the well-documented meetings between Wolff and Verstappen’s camp only strengthened that perception.

It was only in late summer that the Mercedes boss finally gave up hope of signing Verstappen, and now it looks as though it may never actually happen. It’s worth noting, however, that George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli have only been confirmed by the team for 2025, suggesting Wolff may be keeping the door open for the Dutchman.

There’s another door that seems to be opening for Verstappen (if there are any closed for him at all) at Aston Martin. Reports of a “billion-dollar offer” may be false – and the team itself has categorically denied them – but that doesn’t mean discussions haven’t taken place at some level, even if it’s private conversations. Talk of Aston as a potential future destination for Verstappen didn’t start just now; it gained traction much earlier, most notably following the announcement of Adrian Newey’s arrival at the team.

Realistically, though, a move for 2026 still seems highly unlikely as Verstappen isn’t in a position to gamble – at least not yet. It wouldn’t make much sense to commit to such a move without seeing what a Newey-led team, combined with Honda, can achieve in 2026.

All the other top teams seem locked in for the foreseeable future. It’s hard to imagine Hamilton and Charles Leclerc not remaining team-mates for the next two seasons, and the same goes for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. Neither teams nor drivers have any real reason to change.

Mercedes, meanwhile, seems to have enough confidence in Antonelli’s abilities not to panic if he struggles in his rookie year. With Russell already proving that he can win races when the car is quick enough, his young Italian team-mate doesn’t necessarily have to deliver immediately.

Liam Lawson, RB F1 Team

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

What about the second Red Bull seat?

The only seat that could potentially become available at any moment is the second Red Bull seat.

Liam Lawson has a real challenge ahead of him. For someone with just 11 F1 starts, sharing a garage with Verstappen won’t be easy. But if Lawson’s immediate task is simply to do better than Sergio Perez has done for most of 2024, that’s certainly achievable. The bigger question is whether the New Zealander can truly live up to the expectations of becoming a top driver.

Red Bull bosses have made mid-season driver changes in the past: Daniil Kvyat and Pierre Gasly were sent back to Faenza midway through the 2016 and 2019 seasons respectively. But as well as demonstrating a lack of patience on the part of Horner and Helmut Marko, it’s also a reminder that they have experience of dealing with drivers who aren’t quite ready for a top team. This could work in Lawson’s favour, as he may be given more time – especially as Marko and Horner don’t appear too keen on promoting Yuki Tsunoda to the main team.

But one thing is for sure: it’s almost impossible to predict what will happen if Lawson doesn’t prove to be a significant upgrade on Perez.

Red Bull might have a potential new star in Arvid Lindblad, who is due to spend a year in Formula 2, which could extend Lawson’s Red Bull tenure. If the Anglo-Swede earns an F1 promotion with Racing Bulls, it could encourage Horner and Marko to take a wait-and-see approach, regardless of Lawson’s results.

A possible wild scenario (although nothing seems too wild for Red Bull in F1) could see Lindblad promoted to F1 mid-season if he proves himself in F2. In that case, he could even be a contender for a Red Bull seat in 2026.

Yuki Tsunoda, Visa Cash App RB VCARB 01

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Tsunoda’s stalemate

Tsunoda’s position can best be described as uncomfortable. Once again overlooked by Red Bull, he’s about to begin his fifth season with the company’s second team and all signs point to it being his last.

It would be wrong to rule out the possibility of Tsunoda eventually earning a seat in the main team, but for that to happen, Lawson would probably have to produce an almost unprecedented level of underperformance. Tsunoda’s entire F1 tenure with Red Bull suggests that he will be regarded as their absolute last resort. And with the company ending its partnership with Honda, a potential promotion makes even less sense.

At this point, there’s almost nothing Tsunoda can do to impress further. Beating Isack Hadjar won’t do much more than damage the young Frenchman’s prospects – it certainly won’t improve Tsunoda’s.

His long-term F1 future remains uncertain. His name was linked with both Sauber and Haas prior to his Red Bull contract extension last summer, but those options have now disappeared. Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman will make up the Haas line-up for the next few years, while Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto are being positioned as Audi’s driver pairing for 2026.

With Honda becoming Aston Martin’s engine partner, a move there could be an option for Tsunoda, but there are no race seats available at the moment. So his most likely option is to end up as Aston’s reserve for 2026 with the hope of a future promotion.

There will be two new seats at Cadillac, but even if Tsunoda is considered one of the candidates, he’s unlikely to be at the top of the short list. That list currently includes Colton Herta, Valtteri Bottas and Perez, although surprises are always possible.

Jack Doohan, Alpine A524

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Could more earthquakes be possible?

For now, the driver market seems to be in waiting mode. Many of the moves made last year were already directed towards 2026, and only when teams and drivers begin to have more clarity about the pecking order in the new rules cycle will the next round of musical chairs really begin.

One of the biggest uncertainties in the coming months surrounds Jack Doohan. Whether the Australian can handle the pressure of Franco Colapinto’s presence at Alpine will determine not only who starts 2026 with the Enstone team, but also who finishes 2025 in that seat.

For now, the number of changes between 2025 and 2026 is likely to be minimal – but the driver market is quietly preparing for more frenzy in just over a year’s time.