All the data to follow the race · RaceFans

Max Verstappen claimed a surprise pole position for the Japanese Grand Prix but he’ll have to repel the rapid McLarens for 53 laps to claim his first victory of the year.

The threat of rain hangs over Sunday’s race at Suzuka, but will it actually materialise? Here’s the key data for the Japanese Grand Prix.

Weather

There has been a lot of chatter about the possibility of rain arriving on Sunday. If it happens, it will be the second time in just three rounds this year the teams have faced a wet grand prix after two days of dry practice.

However the forecasts have been shifting over the past few days. While there is strong agreement showers will hit the track prior to the race start time at 2pm, some models indicate those will pass before then, or soon afterwards.

The chances of a Melbourne-style race, in which strategists are fixated upon the radar knowing a shower is on its way, are receding. At the moment the likelier scenario is the race starts on a wet track, possibly with rain still falling, which then eases and allows the track to dry out.

In that scenario, strategies will revolve around the point at which drivers feel they can make the transition from intermediates to slicks – and potentially from full wets to intermediates if drivers use the most extreme rain tyre available.

Start

The run to turn one to Suzuka is slightly longer than at most F1 tracks. The driver starting second therefore has a chance to draw alongside the pole winner before the first corner, but as the first corner is fairly high speed, they don’t have the opportunity for a late-braking lunge.

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Verstappen may not have the benefit of his team mate starting alongside him like last year, but the Red Bull gets off the line dependably well, usually better than the McLaren. But although on paper it looks unlikely the pole winner might lose his lead at the start, at the last race Norris gained a place on lap one while Verstappen uncharacteristically lost two.

Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes

Strategy

The drivers’ choice of starting tyre may become moot if the track is wet. Last year several drivers gambled on using the more fragile soft rubber in the hope of gaining places at the start.

Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:

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The drivers have the following sets of dry weather tyres available for the grand prix. No drivers have used any wet weather tyres so far:

In last year’s dry race, most teams favoured a two-stop strategy. However some drivers took the opportunity to fit fresh rubber when the race was red-flagged on the first lap due to a crash.

As always, if drivers can eke their tyres out long enough to complete the race on a single pit stop, they will. However any rubber build-up is likely to be washed away before the race, so if conditions are dry the drivers will likely find it tough on their rubber, increasing the chance of multi-stop strategies. Pitting costs around 23 seconds at Suzuka.

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Overtaking

Suzuka’s DRS configuration is unchanged for this year’s race. If the race is wet, DRS will be deactivated until conditions dry out. As the only zone leads into a high-speed corner where there has already been one major crash this weekend, race control may be wary of enabling DRS too soon.

Safety Cars

The limited run-off at Suzuka creates a significant risk of Safety Car periods and other interruptions. Last year’s race was interrupted by a single red flag period.

In a change for this weekend, drivers have been given specific instructions on where they should park damaged cars in order to reduce the likelihood of the Safety Car being deployed.

Over to you

Will McLaren find a way to take victory from Verstappen? Share your views on the Japanese Grand Prix in the comments.

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